NightWatchFor the night of 24 January 2013North Korea: In the past two days, both the North Korean Foreign Ministry and the National Defense Commission have issued statements denouncing the UN Security Council resolution on North Korea's space launch last month. The National Defense Commission (DPRK NDC), the most powerful entity in North Korea, threatened the United States in the statement it issued on 24 January. Excerpts follow."The UNSC resolution this time, framed through bargaining behind closed doors led by the United States and adopted by rubber-stamping member countries with inveterate blind obedience, clearly demonstrates that the hostile US policy toward the DPRK has entered a new, dangerous phase. …""In connection with the adoption of the utterly unjust resolution against the DPRK, the DPRK NDC solemnly declares the following: ""1. The DPRK NDC totally rejects all of the illegitimate and outrageous resolutions against the DPRK adopted by the UNSC. …""The United States should clearly know that the times have changed and that our people and army have also changed. Amid a nation-wide struggle to defend the sovereignty, our peaceful artificial earth satellites will more continuously and vigorously soar into outer space. ""2. For as long as the United States' hostile policy toward us is entering a more dangerous stage, all might should be concentrated on achieving the denuclearization of the United States and other big powers, not that of the Korean peninsula.""Therefore, the final conclusion of our army and people is that not only will the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula be achieved, but also our peace and security can be guaranteed when the denuclearization of the world -- including the denuclearization of the United States -- is first completely and perfectly accomplished.""In this situation, where the UN Security Council has been completely labeled as an organization that has lost its impartiality and fairness because the United States has led the way in trampling on our sovereignty and its following forces collaborated in it, we declare to the world that both the Six-Party Talks and the 19 September Joint Statement no longer exist. ""In the future, too, there will be dialogue and negotiations for guaranteeing the peace and security of the region, including the Korean peninsula, but there will no longer be any dialogue with the agenda of the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.""3. We will enter an all-out war of confrontation to crush the anti-DPRK hostile maneuvers of the United States and its insidious following forces and safeguard the sovereignty of the country and nation.""We do not conceal the fact that, in this all-out war of confrontation, which is a new stage of the anti-US struggle century after century, various satellites and long-range rockets which we will launch one after another and a high-level nuclear test that we will conduct will all target the United States, our people's arch-enemy.""We should settle accounts with the United States only with the gun barrel, not with words, as it regards jungle law as the rule of its survival.""The world will clearly see how our army and people who, with confident faith in the justness of their cause, storm through along the road of justice for defending sovereignty, punish hostile forces of all sorts, and become victors in the end."Comment: The tone of the statement is almost personal in the frustration it vents. It is tempting to infer that the UN Resolution has thwarted a key program of Kim Jong-un aimed at modernizing North Korea - one of his big ideas. Kim is the leader of the NDC.The language is straightforward, with less communist jargon than is usual. It might be the first statement of its kind to threaten the US directly, albeit generally.The threat is specific about the means that will be used to target the US, but not the timing or any actual target. Missile launches, nuclear tests and other provocations fit within the meaning of "will all target the United States" and "this all-out war of confrontation."The statement ends the Six Party Talks with finality. North Korea expects to participate in future talks about security, but its agenda will not include denuclearization.China-North Korea: China's foreign ministry reacted typically. In the daily press conference the spokesman said, "It is in the common interests of all sides to maintain peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and to achieve the denuclearization of the peninsula. The current situation on the peninsula is complex and sensitive. China hopes that the parties concerned will remain calm, exercise caution in their actions and statements, and refrain from making moves that could lead to the escalation of tensions in the region."He also said, "China thinks that the Six-Party Talks are an effective mechanism for promoting the realization of the relevant goals. All sides should increase contact, enhance mutual trust, improve relations, defuse tensions, and address each side's concerns in a comprehensive and balanced way within the framework of the Six-Party Talks; earnestly carry out the various goals established in the 19 September Joint Statement; advance the process of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula; and jointly maintain peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula. China is ready to make unremitting efforts with the international community to achieve these goals."Comment: The significance is that the Chinese spokesman precisely and in detail contradicted the North Korean NDC statement. This indicates that strain in relations has escalated to tension. China is likely to either send a high level trouble-shooter to Pyongyang or summon a North Korean senior official to Beijing for an explanation.China's Global Times wrote on 25 January that if North Korea engages in further nuclear tests, China will not hesitate to reduce its assistance to North Korea. China is North Korea's primary source of petroleum products, its major trading partner and its major source of investment and food aid. The paper described North Korea as ungrateful for China's efforts on its behalf.Jordan: Update. The voter turnout in the parliamentary elections on the 23d was 56.6% of the 2.27 million registered voters, according to the electoral commission. Since the Muslim Brotherhood boycotted the elections, pro-monarchists won.According to press statements, for the first time, King Abdullah is to name a prime minister from the largest blocs, or someone approved by them. While he has promised that parliament will be consulted, the king has warned it may not be possible to appoint an MP as prime minister.Comment: The Brotherhood's boycott puts it on a collision course with the monarchy. If it wants to influence the direction of the state, it now almost has no choice but to resort to street demonstrations and civil disorder. That might have been the intent in boycotting the elections. In rejecting the King's path to political reform, the Brotherhood apparently is taking its own path to make Jordan an Islamist democracy, with or without a hereditary monarch.
Libya: Warning. Germany, the Netherlands, Ireland and the UK have warned their nationals to leave Benghazi immediately in response to a "specific, imminent threat" to Westerners. UK Foreign Office minister David Lidington told the press the government had received "credible, serious and specific" reports about a possible "terrorist threat….Our advice to people is not to delay, just leave."Mali: Political. News services carried a report that the Touareg faction of the northern Mali Islamist alliance, Ansar al Dine, has broken away and wants negotiations. One of their leaders reportedly said, "We are a group of people from the north of Mali who have a set of grievances that date back at least 50 years….We are not terrorists. We are ready to negotiate."Comment: It's unclear whether the offer to negotiate is genuine because Touareg fighters have changed positions and switched sides twice. One Likely goal is to stop French air attacks on Kidal, where the Touaregs of Ansar al Dine have their base. Ansar al Dina is reputed by some analysts to have 1,500 fighters though that figure is not confirmed.The other two Islamist groups are al Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJWA). Each is reputed to have 500 fighters.Military. The dominant themes in news reporting are continuing French air attacks and the buildup of forces. French aircraft attacked all three major towns in the north, shown by the red dots on the map. The ground forces hold Diabaly, but apparently fighting continues for Konna.French ground forces reportedly now number over 2,000 personnel. Commitments from African states suggest that total coalition forces might reach 10,000 in the next month, reportedly in reaction to the attack on the gas plant in Algeria.French and Algerian forces appear to have stabilized the front line. One news service reported the Islamists have fled Timbuktu because of French air attacks. The key remains financing and logistics to sustain operations over thousands of miles of desert, about which there are almost no reports.End of NightWatch for 24 January.NightWatch is brought to you by Kforce Government Solutions, Inc. (KGS), a leader in government problem-solving, Data Confidence® and intelligence. Views and opinions expressed in NightWatch are solely those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of KGS, its management, or affiliates.www.kforcegov.com A Member of AFCEA Internationalwww.afcea.org
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